BAJA CALIFORNIA: BETWEEN DEVELOPMENT, DRUG TRAFFICKING, AND POLITICAL DISPUTES

This state, which shares a border with the United States (233 km with California, equivalent to 144.8 miles, and 32 km with Arizona, equivalent to 19.88 miles) has played a significant role in relations between Mexico and its northern neighbor.

Baja California is a vital state for the national economy; exports originating there and destined for the United States reached nearly $13 billion in the first quarter of 2026, representing 8.2% of total national exports.

Baja California’s economy is diversified, with industrial exports to the United States spanning electronics, medical devices, and components for the aerospace, automotive, and electrical industries.

It also boasts a significant agricultural sector (berries, tomatoes, etc.) and a robust fishing industry; furthermore, it is Mexico’s leading wine-producing region, accounting for nearly 75% of national wine production.

In addition, Baja California is a constant draw for tourists, as its municipalities offer a wide range of options—including beaches, diverse culinary experiences, and fishing—and it has recently become a destination for lower-cost medical treatments (compared to the United States).

The state enjoys low unemployment (2.38%) and a smaller informal economy—comprising 37.6% of the economically active population, compared to the national average of 54.8%. However, as is the case nationwide, wages are generally low.

Baja California covers an area of ​​71,450 km2 (27,587sq mi), making it similar in size to Ireland or Panama; its population of 3.8 million is comparable to that of Croatia or Uruguay; and its $75 billion economy—along with its GDP per capita of $20,000—compares that of those same two nations.

Baja California’s history is inextricably linked to its relationship with neighboring California, both in terms of economic ties and illicit activities.

José Esteban Cantú Jiménez, a military officer from the state of Nuevo León, arrived in Baja California in 1911 to quell revolutionary uprisings in the territory; however, in 1913, Victoriano Huerta staged a coup against President Madero, and Cantú placed himself under the usurper’s command.

Following Huerta’s fall in 1914, Cantú joined the ranks of Francisco Villa, but when Villa was subsequently defeated by Álvaro Obregón, Cantú switched allegiances once more—this time in favor of the Constitutionalist leader Venustiano Carranza. Carranza appointed him commander of the military garrison in Mexicali, but Cantú declared himself “governor,” leaving Carranza with no choice but to ratify the appointment.

He served as “governor” from 1915 to 1920 and is credited with driving the state’s modernization through numerous public works projects, such as the Mexicali-Tecate-Tijuana-Ensenada highway and the urban development of Mexicali, which included the introduction of potable water and street lighting.

Smuggling and Drug Trafficking

While Cantú promoted the modernization of the state, he also fostered the establishment of casinos and betting houses, as well as the export of opium to the United States.

In 1916, Woodrow Wilson’s government lodged a protest with Venustiano Carranza’s administration regarding the increase in opium shipments to the United States, marking the beginning of a tense relationship between the two countries concerning narcotics.

With the onset of Prohibition in the United States in 1920, authorities in Baja California encouraged the production and sale of alcoholic beverages in Tijuana and Mexicali to attract American consumers; consequently, the border between the two Californias became a crucial hub for smuggling alcohol into the United States.

Cantú fled the state in 1920, opposing the arrival of the group of Sonoran politicians—Adolfo de la Huerta, Álvaro Obregón, and Plutarco Elías Calles—who would dominate national politics for a decade and a half.

In 1923, another military figure from Sonora, Abelardo L. Rodríguez, arrived in Baja California. Appointed governor of the Northern District of Baja California by President Álvaro Obregón, he held the post until 1930, a position that allowed him to control various illicit border markets—specifically those involving opium, marijuana, prostitution, and alcohol.

He was subsequently appointed to President Pascual Ortiz Rubio’s cabinet (1930–1932) as Secretary of Industry and Commerce, although the country was effectively ruled by General Plutarco Elías Calles during the period known as the *Maximato* (1928–1935).

Calles decided that Abelardo L. Rodríguez should complete the presidential term of Ortiz Rubio—who had resigned—after 1932; this move solidified the control Rodríguez already exercised over Baja California. The story of the Agua Caliente casino, founded in 1927—with Lucky Luciano and Meyer Lansky as “partners”—is already legendary. However, when Lázaro Cárdenas assumed the presidency in 1934, he banned gambling and casinos nationwide, forcing the establishment to close.

Nevertheless, Baja California—and the city of Tijuana in particular—was already regarded as a major hub for smuggling all manner of illicit goods from Mexico into the United States, as well as a transit point for undocumented migrants heading to that country.

Today, politician and businessman Jorge Hank Rhon operates Caliente, the leading betting enterprise in Tijuana and across the country. Hank is the son of Carlos Hank González, the former governor of the State of Mexico and leader of the so-called Atlacomulco Group, which dominated politics in the State of Mexico for 70 years through the PRI.

Arellano Félix

In the late 1970s, the Arellano Félix family arrived in Tijuana from Sinaloa, representing the Guadalajara Cartel led by Miguel Ángel Félix Gallardo.

During the 1980s, the Arellano Félix brothers (Benjamín, Ramón, Rafael, Javier, and Eduardo) consolidated their control over cocaine smuggling into the United States, extending their influence across Southern California.

When the Guadalajara Cartel was dismantled in 1989, the Arellano Félix clan and “El Chapo” Guzmán came into conflict over control of the Baja California border with the United States.

In 1993, the Arellano Félix brothers attempted to kill “El Chapo” Guzmán at the Guadalajara International Airport but mistook him for Cardinal Juan Jesús Posadas Ocampo, who was assassinated in the airport parking lot. To date, this version has been called into question, as some believe that Carlos Salinas’s government ordered the cardinal’s assassination and pinned the crime on the Arellano family—who even met with Nuncio Girolamo Prigione to assure him that they were not involved in the killing.

Disputes with other cartels and operations by the Mexican and U.S. governments gradually eroded the immense power the Arellano Félix family had amassed in Tijuana and the state of Baja California: Francisco Rafael was arrested by the Mexican Army in 1993 (he was extradited to the U.S. and imprisoned until 2012; he returned to Mexico but was murdered in Cabo San Lucas in 2013); in 2002, Ramón was killed by police in Mazatlán, Sinaloa; also in 2002, Benjamín was captured in Puebla and extradited to the U.S. in 2011, where he was sentenced to 25 years in prison; Francisco Javier was captured in international waters by the U.S. Coast Guard in 2006 and subsequently sentenced to 25 years in prison; Eduardo was arrested in Tijuana in 2008 and extradited to the U.S., where he was sentenced to 15 years in prison. Currently, Enedina—sister of the Arellano Félix brothers—is considered the leader of what remains of the Arellano Félix cartel. She has had to ally herself on various occasions with the Jalisco New Generation Cartel to remain relevant, given the enduring historical rivalry with the Sinaloa Cartel (now split between the “Mayiza” and the “Chapitos” factions).

Political Disputes

Baja California is governed by the country’s dominant party, Morena. Governor Marina del Pilar Avila Olmeda—formerly the mayor of the state capital, Mexicali—has been at the center of a storm since May of last year, when she confirmed that the U.S. State Department had revoked the visas held by both her and her husband, former PAN legislator Carlos Torres.

Although the governor claimed the revocation was due to “administrative matters,” unofficial reports from the United States suggested the real reason was her inclusion on a list of Mexican “narco-politicians” under investigation by the Donald Trump administration for ties to drug trafficking cartels.

It later emerged that her husband was already facing accusations in the United States regarding drug trafficking and organized crime; this prompted the governor to divorce him to mitigate the political damage caused by the situation.

However, the governor’s troubles deepened this past June when journalist Héctor de Mauleón released audio recordings of her speaking with alleged U.S. government representatives. In the recordings, she is heard attempting to negotiate a deal to regain her visa and inquiring about the specific accusations against her in the United States.

Claudia Sheinbaum’s government immediately threw its full support behind the governor, absolving her of any involvement in criminal activity (despite the absence of any formal investigation).

Yet, within the ranks of the Morena party, there was significant resentment toward the governor for negotiating with alleged U.S. government representatives behind the federal government’s back—an act that, under the National Security Law, constitutes treason.

On July 13 and 27, De Mauleón released further audio recordings from meetings between the governor and these U.S. government “representatives.” In the recordings, she pledges to provide them with “information” generated during state security council meetings—gatherings where representatives from state and federal security agencies meet to analyze the state’s security situation and outline future policies.

Such information is, by nature, confidential; therefore, the governor’s commitment to hand it over to these “representatives” of U.S. authorities would constitute a crime—potentially even treason.

Yet, once again, President Claudia Sheinbaum and her Security Secretary, Omar García Harfuch, downplayed the governor’s statements in the leaked audio, suggesting that the matters discussed in those state security meetings were not actually “that important.”

This demonstrates, once again, that when individuals—even those committing serious crimes, like this Morena governor who offered confidential information to alleged foreign government representatives—are involved, the offense is deemed nonexistent or not “that important.” Conversely, if the person belongs to the opposition—such as Chihuahua Governor Maru Campos (PAN), who allowed CIA agents to participate in operations dismantling drug labs—investigations are immediately launched, and accusations of “treason” are leveled. There are double standards for “justice”: leniency for friends, but the full weight of the law for opponents.

But this comedy of errors continues: Governor Ávila accused her predecessor, former Governor Jaime Bonilla—also of Morena—of setting a “trap” to lure her into meeting with those U.S. government “representatives” (who turned out to be lawyers claiming to represent the FBI and the Department of Justice) under the pretext of resolving issues regarding her visa. Avila and Bonilla are political enemies, particularly since the governor cancelled a 12-billion-pesos ($675 million) photovoltaic plant project in the Mexicali Valley—an initiative that had been one of Bonilla’s major achievements.

Bonilla has publicly accused the governor of protecting organized crime groups, even doing so from the Senate floor (he is currently a senator for the Morena party). Nevertheless, in an apparent attempt at reconciliation, Bonilla offered to help the governor regain her U.S. visa—an offer that ultimately turned out to be a ruse. However, Bonilla denies any involvement in those meetings or the recording thereof.

The damage to the reputations of Morena and the ruling AMLO-Sheinbaum duo has been so severe that they urgently needed to divert the attention of the media and the electorate (it is worth noting that the federal Chamber of Deputies will be up for renewal in 2027, as will Baja California’s state congress and all its municipal governments).

Thus, in late July, the Attorney General’s Office charged former PAN governor Ernesto Ruffo Appel (1989–1995)—now 74 years old—along with nine other individuals, with orchestrating a criminal network responsible for importing fuel from the United States without paying taxes (a practice known as *huachicol fiscal*). The operation involved transporting fuel via rail tankers and was valued at up to 3 billion pesos ($170 million).

Prosecutors claimed this was the country’s “largest” illegal fuel import network—a statement that is entirely false. According to the government’s own data, the largest network uncovered to date was led by the nephews of the former Secretary of the Navy during the AMLO administration; that operation illegally imported fuel worth up to 600 billion pesos ($33.707 billion).

Ruffo was the first opposition candidate to defeat the then-invincible PRI in 1989, and until now, he had been regarded as a key figure in the history of the country’s modern democracy.

However, the AMLO/Sheinbaum administration and Morena now claim he is a criminal kingpin more dangerous than “El Chapo” Guzmán or “El Mayo” Zambada; consequently, he is currently imprisoned at the Altiplano maximum-security facility. Naturally, the opposition and government-critical media have pointed out that this appears to be a government strategy to divert attention from the scandal surrounding Governor Marina del Pilar Avila. It also serves to counter accusations that the AMLO/Sheinbaum administration is colluding with organized crime by suggesting that the opposition is likewise in league with criminal groups.

Thus, we see that Baja California will remain one of the most significant states—both economically and in terms of security—whether due to disputes between drug cartels or the importance both nations place on such a crucial border region. and political disputes will continue to complicate the state’s stability, especially with an eye toward the upcoming 2027 midterm elections.